Padres vs Dodgers: Postseason matchup odds and NL race

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are poised for another postseason encounter, continuing a streak that has seen the two teams meet in every even year since 2020. As the regular season nears its conclusion, the specific stage of their potential matchup—whether the National League Division Series (NLDS) or the National League Championship Series (NLCS)—hinges on the final standings in the National League. This rivalry has become a fixture of recent MLB history, with each meeting offering distinct narratives and competitive dynamics that draw significant attention from fans and analysts alike.

Quick summary

• The Dodgers and Padres have faced each other in the postseason in 2020, 2022, and 2024.
• The Dodgers currently hold the second-best record in the National League, trailing the Milwaukee Brewers.
• The San Diego Padres are tied with the Chicago Cubs for a wild card spot with an 87-69 record.
• A Padres finish as the No. 6 seed would set up a potential NLDS matchup against the No. 2 seed Dodgers.
• If the Padres finish as the No. 4 or No. 5 seed, a meeting with the Dodgers would likely occur in the NLCS.

What happened

As of the latest reporting, the Los Angeles Dodgers hold the second-best record in the National League, sitting two games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. With six games remaining for both teams, the Dodgers would need to win nine of their next twelve outcomes to overtake Milwaukee for the No. 1 seed. Conversely, they are four games ahead of the Atlanta Braves and need only three of twelve outcomes to go their way to clinch the No. 2 seed. Securing the No. 2 seed would grant the Dodgers a bye past the wild card round, sending them directly into the NLDS.

The wild card race in the National League remains tight, with the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres both holding an 87-69 record, while the Philadelphia Phillies sit at 86-70. The Arizona Diamondbacks, at 82-74, are also in the mix, though their chances depend on their final three games against the Padres. The Cubs hold a tiebreaker advantage over the Padres due to their 5-1 head-to-head record, while the Phillies lead the Padres 6-0. This tight clustering means that any of these three teams could finish in nearly any order from the fourth to the sixth seed based on the final week's results.

How we got here

The history between the Dodgers and Padres in the postseason is relatively recent but intense. The first meeting occurred in 2020, where the Dodgers swept San Diego in Texas. In 2022, the Padres returned the favor, defeating the 111-win Dodgers in four games. The most recent matchup in 2024 was described as the best battle of the three, with the Padres holding a 2-1 series lead before the Dodgers held San Diego scoreless for the final 24 innings to advance.

• 2020: Dodgers sweep Padres in the NLDS.
• 2022: Padres beat the 111-win Dodgers in four games in the NLDS.
• 2024: Dodgers overcome a 1-2 deficit to win the series, holding Padres scoreless for the final 24 innings.

Who are the involved parties

The primary teams involved in this potential matchup are the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres, both of which are members of the National League West division. The outcome of their regular season standings will determine their seeding and, consequently, their path through the playoffs. The Milwaukee Brewers, currently leading the National League, and the Atlanta Braves, who are in contention for the second seed, are also key factors in determining the Dodgers' final position.

In the wild card race, the Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, and Philadelphia Phillies are the primary contenders for the remaining playoff spots. The Arizona Diamondbacks also have a slim chance, depending on their final games against the Padres. The performance of these teams in the final stretch of the regular season will dictate whether the Dodgers face the Padres in the divisional round or wait until the championship series.

What the teams and sources say

According to True Blue LA, the structure of the MLB playoffs dictates that the No. 1 seed plays the winner of the wild card series between the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds, while the No. 2 seed faces the series between the No. 3 and No. 6 seeds. This structure is crucial for understanding the potential paths for the Dodgers and Padres. If the Padres finish as the No. 6 seed, they would be paired against the No. 3 seed in the wild card round, with the winner facing the No. 2 seed Dodgers in the NLDS.

The source notes that if the Dodgers are the No. 2 seed and the Padres are the No. 4 or No. 5 seed, the two teams could not meet until the NLCS. This scenario is less common, as teams in the same division meeting in the postseason has only been possible since 1995. The source highlights that two NL West teams have met in the NLCS only once, in 2007, when the Arizona Diamondbacks were swept by the Colorado Rockies.

Explainer

To understand the stakes, it is helpful to clarify the MLB playoff structure. The National League consists of three divisions, with the top team in each division earning a direct berth into the NLDS. The remaining playoff spots are determined by the wild card race, where the teams with the best records among those not leading their division compete. The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in each league receive a first-round bye, meaning they do not have to play in the wild card series.

The term 'seed' refers to the ranking of teams in the league based on their win-loss record. The No. 1 seed is the team with the best record, the No. 2 seed is the next best, and so on. In the wild card round, the No. 4 seed plays the No. 5 seed, and the No. 3 seed plays the No. 6 seed. The winners of these series then face the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the NLDS. This structure ensures that the best teams in the league have a path to the championship, while also providing a competitive opportunity for teams with slightly lower records.

Impact and why it matters

The potential matchup between the Padres and Dodgers is significant because it represents a continuation of a recent and intense rivalry. Each previous meeting has been competitive, with the outcome often determined by late-game performances and strategic adjustments. The fact that the two teams have met in every even year since 2020 suggests a consistent level of competitiveness between the two franchises, making their potential postseason encounter a focal point for fans and media.

The specific stage of the matchup—NLDS or NLCS—also carries implications for the teams' preparation and strategy. An NLDS matchup would be a direct continuation of their recent history, while an NLCS matchup would be a rarer event, as divisional rivals meeting in the championship series is uncommon. The outcome of the regular season's final week will therefore have a lasting impact on the narrative of the 2024 postseason.

What comes next

The final week of the regular season will determine the final standings in the National League. The Dodgers, Padres, Cubs, Phillies, and Diamondbacks all have games remaining that will influence their seeding. The Padres' final three games against the Diamondbacks are particularly crucial, as they could determine whether Arizona is eliminated or remains in the wild card race. The results of these games will set the stage for the wild card series and the subsequent NLDS matchups.

Once the regular season concludes, the wild card series will take place, with the winners advancing to the NLDS. The Dodgers, if they secure the No. 2 seed, will wait for the winner of the No. 3 vs. No. 6 seed series. If the Padres finish as the No. 6 seed and beat the No. 3 seed, they will face the Dodgers in the NLDS. If the Padres finish higher, a meeting with the Dodgers may be delayed until the NLCS. The exact path will be determined by the final standings.